The Orbán Quotient


There seem to be a lot of smug Remainers back on the scene all of a sudden. Just when we Brexiteers thought they had been summarily dispatched – reducing them to a desperate rump of hideous nudity and Nando’s dinners – the anti-democrats are back on our TV screens and clogging our timelines.

No doubt they are buoyed by Corbyn’s support for a second referendum – his desperate bid to keep what’s left of the Labour Party together in the face of TIG departures. However, scratch the surface a little and the Remainers seem most delighted by the Tory ministers who last week said they would resign if a No Deal Brexit were to be supported by the UK Government.

So let’s examine their newfound happiness. Let’s find some good reasons for them to continue to whine:

First, No Deal is the default position the UK will find itself in on March 29th – in only 25 days’ time. It’s written into law as our departure date from the EU and we’ll leave then unless legislation changes before that date.

Second, May’s deal is unlikely to pass. It was rejected by 230 votes last time around and is almost sure to be rejected on March 12th – save significant alterations, which even the estimable Geoffrey Cox is highly unlikely to achieve.

So, third, when the deal gets rejected for a second time, the day after, on March 13th, No Deal will be rejected by the Remainer-dominated House of Commons. (This is where the Remainers think they have the Brexiteers trapped, hence their premature disgorgement of joy of late).

Fourth, on March 14th, a two to three month delay to Brexit will be engineered by the Commons. The Remainers see this as their first delay of many; usurping the democratic vote of June 2016. In their eyes, and according to all their well-funded strategists, this is the watershed moment and they’ll be in control of Brexit soon thereafter. They’ll crack open some champagne at this point – well, Nando’s does Bucks Fizz at least.

But there is a fifth point they cannot visualise yet. (Why are all the cornermen on the Brexit side as they were on the anti-euro side in the 90’s?) The Remainers have completely failed to spot it – but it’s a death blow to both May’s unsatisfactory deal and Remain. What if the British request for an extension to the 29th March exit gets rejected by even one of the EU27, even after a third vote on May’s deal? What if, for many months now, relations between Brexiteers, Trump and Orbán of Hungary have been oiled by talk of mass investment and collaboration on the appointment of a new Conservative Leader? What if Orbán allows the extension, but another EU member throws a spanner in the works by refusing it, for whatever reason? Even the Europhile French president, Emmanuel Macron, said he would only agree to an extension, which would require unanimity of the EU27 leaders, if there was a clear purpose to it.

At this point, there will be lemmings jumping off a cliff. No doubt. Just two weeks to go! They will all be dressed in blue and characteristic yellow. The noise will be wretched. Nasty Camp Remain will not know what to do next and a blame game of backstabbing will ensue. The Hungarian Gay Hussar will be boycotted by half its usual Labour clientele and brimming with Brexiteers chomping on veal goulash with galuska. Parliament will appear impotent. Yvette Cooper will be reduced to tears and complain about Brexiteer bullying. Leo Varadkar will set fire to another car in Londonderry and inquire about dual nationality. Theresa May will be checking out walking boots in Millets, knowing that events have transpired miraculously to save her party and British Democracy.

At this point Brexiteers can make a toast to our real European friends across the Channel – getting plastered on shots of Hungarian Unicum. It really will be game over for Camp Remoan.

And what are the EU going to do about this Orbán quotient? How can they block it? Rewrite the rules? Chuck Hungary out of the 27? Engineer a sudden election in Hungary? Send Herman Van Rompuy to Budapest with a vial of poison? The chaos will be delightful to observe. Even George Soros can’t hedge against that kind of karma. The Selamyr family will have to wait at least another generation for another crack at anschluß.

Either which way we’ll get Brexit. So fear not, folks. One would expect a bit of friction with a revolution.

Can’t you smell change in the March air?

Times they are a changin.