BY PAUL T HORGAN
The analogy isn’t precise, but seems similar.
Consider the origins of the Great War. Serbian fanatics in Bosnia, a province administered by Austria-Hungary since 1878 and annexed in 1908, assassinate the heir to the Austro-Hungarian crown. There is a tenuous link between the fanatics and the Serbian Kingdom.
Austria-Hungary is given a ‘blank cheque’ by Imperial Germany to crush Serbia in war.
A system of alliances kicks in. Russia mobilises to protect Serbia from Austria. Germany mobilises to protect Austria from Russia. France mobilises to honour its alliance with Russia. Britain mobilises the fleet, just in case. Germany invades Belgium to get to France and circumvent French fortifications. Britain and her Empire, honouring a commitment to defend Belgium, declare war on Germany.
The main theatre of war is the Western Front. Attempts by Britain and France to bypass the deadlock there by opening up other theatres of war fail. The Great War becomes a World War when Germany internationalises it through the use of submarine warfare and starts killing American citizens by sinking ships without warning and in direct violation of the laws and conventions surrounding naval blockades.
While everyone focuses on the role of trenches (or concrete bunkers in the case of the Germans), barbed wire, and machine-guns in the slaughter, most deaths in combat are actually caused by artillery.
Eventually, Germany is worn down by blockade that causes mass starvation, and finally defeated in the field of battle when the British develop a combined arms approach to breaching fortifications using tanks, artillery, modernised infantry tactics, and close air support.
Russia, an ally of Britain and France, collapses due to the strains of war, and its leadership is overthrown.
Using the events of the Great War as a template, consider the events in the Middle East since October 2023. Islamist fanatics stage a mass attack on Israel from Gaza. Israel makes war on Gaza to destroy the fanatics and prevent their resurgence, which descended into the military quagmire of urban warfare.
Iran gives Hezbollah in Lebanon a ‘blank cheque’ to make war on Israel.
Israel responds by crippling Hezbollah from top to bottom through precision strikes to kill its leadership, booby-trapped communications equipment to kill or cripple its rank-and-file, and aerial bombardment of its military hardware and emplacements to destroy its offensive capability.
Syria, an ally of Iran, collapses after the Iranian, Palestinian, and Russian forces that had been keeping the Assad regime in power are weakened by overstretch.
Iran, unlike Imperial Germany after entering Belgium, benefits from distance from its declared enemy. It is in a sweet position. Not too close to permit large volumes of low-range rocketry like the HIMARS systems that did so much to eliminate Russian military commands in Ukraine, but not too far to have intercontinental ballistic missiles as the only method of attack. There is no trench warfare. If Iran shared a common border with Israel, it would have been defeated in battle by now, and the Iranian regime would have already collapsed.
But there still is the duel of artillery, except that instead of being dumb shells launched from metal tubes, the warheads have guidance systems. So a smaller quantity of explosives is needed to be used to hit a target, as the chances of missing have been radically reduced.
And this is the stage that we are at now in this regional war: an artillery duel with smart weapons.
Israel has also asserted aerial superiority over Iranian airspace, and its warplanes seem able to roam at will over the skies. Israel also seems to possess excellent signals intelligence to such an extent that the Iranian regime, in an act of paranoia, is ordering its subjects to stop using certain internet apps on their smartphones and computers.
Iran is losing this war. Like Imperial Germany saw the Ottomans seeking terms as British forces advanced through Syria towards Turkey, and also the collapse of Austro-Hungarian resistance in the Balkans and Italy, so Iran has seen the collapse of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad’s Syria. Its only remaining partner is the Houthi regime in Yemen.
Ayatollah Khamenei is in a similar position to the Kaiser, but the speed of the war means that the ‘elite’ Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can still be relied upon in a manner that the Kaiser could not with the Imperial German Army in November 1918, as it has not been worn down by years of fighting and starvation. But this new war has a distinct pattern to it, in that precision strikes by Israeli forces are dismantling the ability of Iran to wage war.
What is unique is that Israel is successfully waging war against the Iranian regime, but not against the Iranian people. The civilian infrastructure largely appears not to have been harmed. The electricity and water supplies are still functioning. Residential apartment blocks are not being indiscriminately destroyed. Netanyahu is not following the Putin playbook.
The ability of Iran’s surviving leaders to project their power is being progressively eroded, but not their will to do so, or indeed their will to repress their people.
Iran has been reported as asking for terms through intermediaries. But Israel has no incentive to stop the attacks, which will simply allow Iran to recover from the beat-down, especially as it appears to be working. Donald Trump is on record as demanding Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” (his caps).
After almost half a century of being the ‘bad boy’ of international relations, breaching fundamental international laws such as diplomatic immunity, waging asymmetrical warfare through the backing of terrorist groups, and planting operatives in countries to attack exiled dissidents, Iran has run out of options. What friends it still has are unable to help it. Its ability to defend itself is being dismantled, and its ability to govern is being destroyed.
Iran’s only hope is to internationalise the conflict by direct attacks on another country, or by activating its terrorist cells to cause mass death of civilians in Europe or the USA, resulting in NATO involvement on Iranian soil or in the skies above. Then Russia and China might directly intervene, and a compromise would be reached that may preserve an element of the current regime or allow it to re-emerge. This would be the ‘Hail Mary’ option.
Barring that, the missile attacks will continue. More elements of Iran’s leadership will be killed, and those that move up the chain of command face imminent death. This feels like the endgame for the clerical regime. It seems set to be blasted by precision missile strikes out of existence. About time too.
Paul T Horgan worked in the IT Sector. He lives in Berkshire.