BY STEWART SLATER

Right, deep breath. Firstly, are you OK? It feels strange. I imagine a lot of you have been feeling like I have – shaken, troubled, let down, full of questions.

I refer, of course, not to the nation’s favourite silver-haired gopher-botherer (and if you are upset about him, I suggest you grow up), but to its blond-haired feather-ruffler, Boris Johnson. For, as you no doubt know, the hero/villain of Brexit has gone, like Scipio Africanus, into self-imposed exile/thrown his toys out of the pram one last time.

The talent-free zone of ITV’s mid-morning schedule and Britain’s most consequential leader of the 21st century so far may not be obvious bed-fellows (although what a story that would be) but, as so often, there are parallels. There is, for example, the unmistakable sound of axes being ground, whether by the former’s ex-colleagues or by the latter’s opponents. Schofield has Eamonn Holmes, Boris has Chris Bryant who accused him of showing “contempt for Parliament” (less, in this case perhaps, a moral failing and more an entirely rational response to an institution many of whose members, Bryant included, tried to overturn a referendum and install Corbyn and McDonnell in Downing Street).

For both, no sooner had they fallen, than attention shifted to their return. “Experts” were quoted in their belief that Schofield could soon be continuing his campaign to vacuum up the nation’s IQ points, albeit on a channel nobody watches. Within seconds of Boris’ departure, it was decided that he would run in Nadine Dorries’ conveniently vacant seat in Mid Bedfordshire which, conveniently, has a much larger majority than Uxbridge. 4D chess, you see.

When this fiendishly clever plan turned out to be too fiendishly clever to actually work, Johnsonite outriders (as the Guardian might term them) such as Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg insisted that the Blond Beast be allowed to run as a Tory in the next election since he was “in pole position” to be the next leader. Always conscious of his own mythology, Boris would, no doubt, be pleased by this. So many cultures have formed the belief that a past leader is not dead but merely resting, ready to return in his people’s hour of need, that folklorists have invented a term for it – “the king asleep in the mountain”. Rees-Mogg and others are, consciously or not, elevating him to the ranks of King Arthur, Charlemagne, Constantine XI Palaiologos and Frederick Barbarossa among others. More prosaically, the reaction of his fan club may turn Churchill’s biographer’s mind to the story told of Stanley Baldwin. When asked about the prospect of a return for the similarly shambolic if larger-than-life leader then in the wilderness, he is said to have remarked, “We must save Winston to be our fighting Prime Minister.”

Such talk, of course, presupposes that Boris wishes to return. He may decide that touring the world, raking in the cash, fathering more children and being treated as a saint on the streets of Kyiv is a perfectly pleasant way to spend his remaining years. Or he may not. Will a man long thought to desire being “world king” content himself with a life reminiscent of those lived by Europe’s deposed monarchs? There will be wealth yes, courtiers too, but also periodic reminders such as the Cenotaph of what had been. Would it not be better to have one more tilt at the windmill? Churchill managed it after all.

But even if his spirit is willing, he may find that the flesh of others is weak. For, getting another seat requires a degree of cooperation from the party. And, with Rishi Sunak in charge, that does not look likely. Stripping out the personal issues, it would be a brave leader who enabled the return to Parliament of a man involved in the defenestration of two of his predecessors.

Let’s say, though, just for the sake of argument, that Boris is adopted by the Conservatives somewhere, and that he wins his seat. What then? Much would depend on the result of the general election. A (currently unexpected) victory would see Sunak secure and, no doubt, happy to consign him to five years of dealing with constituents’ complaints about pot-holes. A loss would see an early leadership election in a Parliamentary party which does not particularly like him. For, like his old school chum, David Cameron, he has, to be blunt, managed to annoy everyone. There are those who are fed up with the psychodrama, those who can’t forgive him for Brexit and those who love him for Brexit but can’t forgive him for lockdown. His only chance is if the parliamentary party decides that it fears the electorate more than it hates him and, in a desperate attempt to ward off catastrophe (i.e. keep their jobs), reaches for the box marked, “In case of emergency, deploy the Johnson”.

Tony Blair may look ever more like Dorian Gray after he has stabbed his picture, but he had a point. There is a third way.

Less than 48 hours after the shock resignation, purely by coincidence, of course, GB News presenter Camilla Tominey secured an interview with GB News presenter Nigel Farage in which the bete-noire of Brexit showed more than a little ankle to his frenemy. The man who believes Brexit has been betrayed, seemed strangely keen to cooperate with the man who sees his ousting as a first step to overturn the referendum.

It would be easy to dismiss this as dear old Nige popping up to get some attention. Third parties famously do not work. But, but, but…

It is ironic that Johnson is seen as having caused the Conservatives trouble by acting as the country’s Lord of Misrule during lockdown, when the real damage he caused occurred earlier, in his greatest moment of triumph, the 2019 election. This may have given them a stonking majority, but it was always an unstable one, the new Northern Stronghold wanting radically different things to the Southern heartlands. More public spending would keep the former happy, but it would have to be paid for by the latter who would see no benefit from it.

Keeping the two together was always going to be a challenge, and so it was likely that a choice would have to be made. Through some form of political muscle memory, the post-Johnson Conservatives have opted for the latter, seeking to placate their traditional source of strength. This is, however, a mistake. For the South is, inexorably, trending away from the party. Esher and Walton, Dominic Raab’s soon-to-be former seat had a 14,000 vote majority in 1992, he won by less than 3,000 in 2019. Part of this is demographic, younger voters, more left-wing, leave the cities in which they congregate after graduation, and take their political views out into the burbs. Part of it is specific to the current moment. It was the middle class voters who were most annoyed by the referendum (anti-Brexit marches appeared to be a congregation of Waitrose card holders) because unlike the lower, they saw value in the EU’s offer (retiring to a darling little gite in the Auvergne) but unlike the upper, they had to face the fact they would need assistance to do so. For this cohort, despite, of all people, Theresa May’s best efforts, the Conservatives are, irredeemably, the nasty party once more. And this is the group on which the current leadership has chosen to double down.

But this leaves a gap. A potentially Boris/Farage shaped gap – of voters who went Blue in 2019 but are drifting back Red or, perhaps more likely, into apathy. The issues which animated their vote in the referendum remain, however, even if both major parties seem intent on ignoring them. The “fourth quadrant” of socially conservative, economically left voters is still there and still has no-one to speak for it. Might a new vehicle, a “National Conservative” party do the trick?

Possibly.

It would certainly start with significant advantages. Johnson is close to the money – within hours of the vote of no-confidence being called last year, 23 big donors had signed a letter urging MPs to keep him; the billionaire Lord Cruddas’ Conservative Democratic Organisation is, to resort to Guardianese for a moment, “a Johnsonite pressure group”. Like an ex who has yet to get over a break-up, the media may hate him, but it cannot resist talking about him. Any new party would instantly get acres of coverage. It may be that some sitting Tory MPs would move across, like riders in the Tour de France positioned further up the hill to give their leader support.

That Johnson is, as far as we can tell, probably most comfortable around metropolitan liberals need not be a handicap. Believing, it seems, in nothing, he can say anything. He has always been capable of giving the impression that he sees other people as people, a source of interest, instead of economic units a la Sunak, or objects to be patronised like Starmer. Those who would argue that his track record in office is not ideal for his potential voters need to remember that his superpower has always been to get people to listen to what he says, and ignore what he does.

There is, of course, no guarantee of success, but the route back through the mainstream is far from risk free either. Why not seek, like one of his Roman heroes, to go out in a blaze of glory, attempting the seemingly impossible? For doing the impossible is what Boris does. No Tory could win London, but he did. No-one could win the referendum, but he did. No-one could solve the parliamentary impasse of 2019, but he did. A new party would be difficult, but difficult is a walk in the park compared to impossible.

“Push that which is falling”, Dominic Cummings told his followers (and, if he and Johnson could bury the hatchet somewhere apart from each other’s skulls, that would be useful – reuniting the man who understands the Red Wall with the man who can talk to it). The Conservative Party is ripe to fall and Johnson is nothing if he is not an agent of chaos. It would be ironic if the referendum called by David Cameron to unite it, ends up precipitating its collapse.

Stewart Slater works in Finance. He invites you to join him at his website.