BY JACK WATSON

In the UK, it seems that one of the critical aspects of our justice system – the ability to imprison criminals – is becoming problematic. At the start of May, the population in prisons in England and Wales was 87,505, with the official capacity at 88,895. There are only 1,390 more spaces left, meaning there will eventually be nowhere to put offenders as the number of imprisonments increases. At current rates, the prison population is projected to rise by over 20,000 by 2028 and plans to increase capacity by the same amount will not be completed until 2030. The government has a huge problem on its hands.

The Conservative Party announced plans in March to release prisoners up to two months early, and those ‘less serious offenders’ could be released just 18 days early to relieve overcrowding. They also wanted to deliver 10,000 new prison places by the end of next year, creating 20,000 in total; doubling up inmates in cells ‘if safe to do so’; deporting double the number of foreign offenders; funding an extra £53 million to make the bail process more efficient; and making £22 million available to fund community accommodation. So far, these pledges have not been effective. But things may get even worse.

The new Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has set out a new 10-year strategy to address prison overcrowding after concerns have grown that we may run out of space. She stated, ‘Emergency measures are needed to pull the justice system back from the brink of total collapse’. Mahmood has pledged to release thousands of inmates by September, and those prisoners who are on ‘standard determinate sentences’ after they have served 40% of their time, which is 10% lower than the Conservatives planned.

This seems like a pragmatic plan; however, it will not be as easy as they think. 55% of those serving time in prison for petty crimes (theft, fraud, drug abuse, etc.) or for 12 months go on to reoffend, so releasing them will free up space in prison but will not reduce crime. If they are given a custodial sentence – a sentence of imprisonment for a period set by the court; depending on the length of the sentence, the first half is served in custody and the second half on licence – the rate decreases to 22%. Therefore, it is more effective to give these inmates community service or some type of volunteering work instead of just releasing them.

Labour also aims to carry on from the Conservatives’ plan of building 10,000 to 20,000 prison places, as they only managed to finish around 6,000. However, they have not announced when they will finish the building. The biggest problem with this is that it is going to cost a substantial amount of money to build them, which is another expense on top of what they have already planned in their manifesto: the Ministry of Justice estimated that the average cost for funding a prison place last year was £53,108, which, as The Daily Telegraph indicated, costs more than sending someone to Eton. That means it will cost over £1 billion to build the extra 20,000. Moreover, if additional prisons are to be built, where will they be built? With Labour’s plans, announced by Rachel Reeves, to increase house building, there will be a lot of competition for space.

Tony Blair famously said when elected in 1997, and it was recently repeated by the new Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, that Labour would be ‘tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’. Given the state of our prisons now, it is hard to know which, if either, aspect of that policy worked. The Labour government makes no secret of its plans to release thousands of prisoners to avoid a ‘breakdown of law and order’. The Conservatives are not blameless for all of this; it has been going on for years, but surely it seems more likely that releasing thousands of prisoners into the community will lead to a breakdown of law and order, which will be ‘tough’ on society. We must not forget how the French Revolution started.

Jack Watson is a 15-year-old schoolboy, who has a Substack about being a Hull City fan. You can subscribe to it here.