BY PAUL T HORGAN
Could use of the Tallboy have precipitated the end of World War II?
Adolf Hitler moved in a mysterious way, but there was a good reason for the mystery. Of all the countries fighting in World War II, only Germany lacked capability for an orderly change of leadership to alter policy. Instead Germany was run by a form of personal rule. Hitler fully understood this, which is why he ensured there was no routine to his movements and activities that could be predicted and thus used in planning his assassination. Germany was the only country who could only change policy following the physical extermination of the leadership.
All these erratic comings and goings came to a hard stop in January 16th, 1945, when Hitler retreated to the Führerbunker in Berlin for the last time. Allied signals intelligence would have been aware of this before the end of January. While the Allies may not have definitely known the location of the Führerbunker, an educated guess could have been made that it was located underneath the Reichskanzlei. And this raises an interesting prospect.
While it had been determined earlier in the war that a decapitation exercise would be counterproductive as Hitler’s bungled military decisions actually favoured the Allies, this was not the case in 1945. The nature of German governance, and the impossibility of change, meant that a decapitation exercise would shorten the war. The state of Germany at the start of 1945 meant that most informed opinion was of the view that 1945 was the final year of the war, but every day the war went on, thousands of lives would be lost, and more damage would be wrought.
By August 1943, Germany could no longer win the war in Europe, and by October 1944 she had lost the war. Under the kind of leadership Germany had in 1918, Germany would have surrendered, but Wagnerian fanaticism, fatalism, and depravity meant that the fighting would have to go on to the bitter end.
But did that bitter end have to be when tanks got to within 100 yards of the Führerbunker?
617 Sqn Lancaster B1 Special PB996 ‘YZ-C’ releases a 21,500lb ‘Grand Slam’ over the Arnsberg Viaduct, Germany, on 19th March 1945.
There is a strong case that, once there was a better than evens chance that the Allies had located Hitler and that he was staying put, that an attempt should have been made to kill him. And the Allies had the right tools for the job.
The Tallboy was a 12,000lb bomb designed to penetrate the ground at supersonic speeds after being dropped from a specially-modified Lancaster flown by 617 Squadron, the ‘Dambusters’ (squadron motto: Apres moi, le deluge). It had been in use since spring 1944, with notable raids, like blocking a rail tunnel which would have been vital in supplying German forces after D-Day, and also sinking the battleship Tirpitz. The bomb did not have to score a direct hit as the massive quantity of explosive, when detonated underground, would create powerful shockwaves that could destroy concrete structures and temporarily liquefy the earth, causing buildings to collapse.
So, imagine that, with a massive fighter escort, and diversionary raids to distract what remained of Germany’s fighter defences, 617 Squadron is sent on a bright cloudless day in mid-February to bomb the Führerbunker. There would be intensive flak, and smoke projectors could be used to obscure parts of the doomed city, but 617, expert in precision bombing, could defeat these countermeasures by making timed runs from a known landmark located by sight or the H2S terrain-mapping radar. Hitler, already in an air raid shelter, would have stayed put. 12 bombers drop their heavy loads. 6 hit the target or near enough to have damaging effect to render the Führerbunker uninhabitable. One bomb scores a direct hit. Hitler, Goebbels, Bormann, Keitel are all killed immediately or die while trapped in the wreckage either from wounds or suffocation, or even gassing if the diesel generator necessary for the pumps to clear accumulating groundwater (the Führerbunker sat below the local water-table) kept running and its toxic exhaust, from a dislodged outlet, filled all the air-spaces.
Allied signals intelligence would know within a couple of days how effective the raid had been through the change in the nature of the signals traffic. An announcement that the raid had been carried out, and a demand for Hitler to show himself could be made. Perhaps a body double would be used, but probably not.
The focus would shift to Hermann Goering, Hitler’s appointed successor after the defection of Hess in 1941. Goering would likely assert himself as the new Führer rather than allow any body double controlled by someone else to take over.
Raising a Flag over the Reichstag, by Yevgeny Khaldei
We know what Karl Doenitz did when the responsibility was thrust on to him. He delayed the end of the war by a week so that the maximum number of German civilians could flee westwards and away from the self-righteous vengeance of the Soviets. Goering may have done something similar, but with a twist. The entirety of the Nazi leadership was convinced that it was only a matter of time before the Western Allies would realise that their real enemy was the USSR. In this they were right. But they were also deluded that at the eleventh hour Germany could make peace with the Western Allies in such a way that Germany would form a new alliance and keep the war going against the new common enemy, the USSR. So Goering may have ordered all forces facing the Western Allies to lay down their arms, while those facing the USSR had to keep fighting.
Imagine what General George Patton would have done if he was aware that the way to Berlin lay clear ahead of him and unopposed, apart from some SS fanatics. It is likely he would have immediately taken the advantage and rang the bell for the Berlin Express. The fact that the decapitated leadership in Berlin meant that all authority was disintegrating may not have seemed important. Berlin was a prestige target, irrespective of its strategic significance. US occupation of territory in what had been agreed to be the Soviet zone may have been important, as boots on the ground could have made a difference. It is quite possible that the Stars and Stripes would have flown on the Reichstag in March 1945. The military facts, and Patton’s known dislike of communism may have caused tensions, which may have only been alleviated through the Soviets making a compromise.
The image of an American GI raising Ol’ Glory over the Reichstag would have been a potent symbol of which country, and also which political system actually won the war, as would have been the RAF’s central role in ending the war by killing Hitler.
Bomber Command’s strategy would have been vindicated, even if it wasn’t area-bombing that had done the job.
Large areas of Czechoslovakia would also be liberated by the American forces, and Czechoslovakia may have subsequently fallen into the Western sphere of influence rather than collapsing under a communist coup. The massacre of Germans evacuating from an American-occupied Prague may have been averted.
But what of Himmler?
Himmler would have known with absolute certainty that he had no place in a government led by Goering. Calling on the SS to oppose Goering’s peace initiatives would have been tantamount to initiating a civil war as Germany was collapsing under Allied blows, which would have been ludicrous. So Himmler would have gone into hiding, hoping to escape justice. Perhaps he would have been caught. Perhaps not. But either way, he would have been off the board.
The collapse of Germany by the beginning of March 1945 has other repercussions. It means that the USSR enters the war against Japan in early June 1945, which is considerably before the testing of the atomic bomb. A Soviet blitzkreig would probably have taken all of Korea before the war ended, thus meaning there would be no Korean War, and thus fewer Cold War tensions. It is even possible that the USSR could have mounted an amphibious invasion of Hokkaido, Japan’s northern island, but Soviet naval limitations, and their impact on logistics, may have meant that there would be a limit to how far Stalin’s forces could advance due to supply shortages.
Would Japan continue to fight after the USA took Okinawa in late June 1945, and then Hokkaido was attacked, meaning Japan was facing a ground war on two fronts? We would see if Hirohito would bring forward Japanese capitulation before the first combat use of an atomic bomb. It is possible that this would be the point at which Hirohito intervenes to state that “the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage” and call a halt. Would the USSR then proceed to take all of Hokkaido after Japan’s soldiers lay down their arms? Would Hokkaido fall part of a Soviet zone of occupation, and would Tokyo be partitioned by the Allies in a manner similar to Berlin? If the Soviets had landed on Hokkaido, then they may have demanded occupation rights in Tokyo, and the USA may have compromised by providing similar rights to British forces, and possibly the French. Just as there was an East and West Germany, there could have been a North and South Japan, the Americans conceding Soviet rights in Japan as the Soviets conceded American rights in Germany. This could have precipitated the version of the Korean war in this timeline.
If Japan capitulates before Hiroshima is bombed, there is no public display of nuclear weapons. It is possible news of them will leak out, especially if people start to notice how mentions of Uranium have become rather limited, and also there is independent development of the means to synthesise Plutonium, an element that does not exist in nature.
Is the world a better place if Bomber Command kills Hitler in mid-February 1945? Fewer people are killed in Europe as the fighting comes to a halt prematurely. More people might die in the Far East as Soviet forces attack the Japanese mainland islands. British prestige for ending the war with a single precision air raid would be high, and the efficacy of precision strikes, over war as an indiscriminate industrial process, may move military technology in a slightly different direction. The terror of nuclear war may never surface in public, especially if atomic testing is done in secret, although the rise in background radiation would be detected. Certainly the concept of an atomic bomb as a war winning weapon would not be realised.
Goering, the architect of peace in the West, may not have fared well out of his decision. He had committed numerous war crimes, and it is likely he would still have faced execution, despite being a peacemaker. His death may have in time been as contentious as has been the non-execution of Albert Speer, Europe chief slave-master during the war, whose life was spared perhaps because Allied officials found him relatable in comparison to the monsters in the dock beside him.
It is likely that the reason why such a precision raid was never ordered was because while the Dams raid was spectacular, it had limited strategic effect and this informed policy. The war was going to be won like its predecessor, by hard slog, not magic bullets. And yet, and yet?
Paul T Horgan worked in the IT Sector. He lives in Berkshire.