BY ANTONIA FILMER
Madhav Nalapat is no stranger to the English-speaking world and has been a contributor to Country Squire Magazine. In the Manipal University professor’s latest book, “75 Years of Indian Foreign Policy”, is found a concise yet comprehensive review of India’s past, present and future bilateral relations and multipolar ambitions since Independence in 1947. Nalapat has from the 1980s considered India to be on the cusp of becoming a superpower. In the book, he lays out the many mistakes and obstacles that have so far postponed India’s rise while offering solutions to accelerate India’s economic and societal growth.
The approach of the journalist-turned-academic who became India’s first Professor of Geopolitics in 1998 is based on what he believes to be factual, his analysis of problems and the solutions offered are based not on an imaginary (and therefore more perfect) world but on realities. Nalapat has a unique grasp of history combined with insights into what can go right or wrong in the future, he seeks to look into an adversary’s mindset; he is insistent on adapting to changing realities while advocating a long term strategic foreign policy that supports a domestic policy focussing on economic growth, but which is flexible enough to adapt to current events. His prevalent theme for current and future foreign policy and security is to further consolidate India’s existing security alliance with the US and its allies to overcome the challenges posed by what he terms the “Sino-Russian” and the “Sino-Wahabi” alliance that is determined under the leadership of the PRC to establish its dominance over the international order.
The early chapters explain India’s catalogue of missed opportunities, which comprise of ideological and strategic mistakes. There is an unconcealed reproach of key policy choices of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s, particularly relating to the passive acceptance of the 1947 Partition and the creation of Pakistan. He believes that the implausible two nation theory that walls off Muslims from Hindus has been the scourge of India ever since. After 1947 Nehru’s policy decisions lost strategically critical parts of India (that part of Jammu and Kashmir that is now PoK as well as Aksai Chin). India acquiesced in such illegitimate acquisitions by Pakistan and China, while Nehru refused to seek the help of the democracies against the ravages inflicted on it by an early combination of a theological state with an authoritarian state. India is paying the price for such a folly to this day. However, there is praise for the liberalising mindsets of Lal Bahadur Shastri for preserving English as an official language, P.V. Narasimha Rao for his reform of the country’s Soviet-style policies, and to Rajiv Gandhi for his efforts at leapfrogging India into the age of modern technology. It is worth noting that Nalapat has been a staunch advocate of India as an integral part of the Anglosphere, writing in the New Criterion years ago that India was an essential pillar in the 21st century Anglosphere, together with the US and the UK, a stance that has earned him brickbats by those in India who are phobic to both these western democracies.
Nalapat describes how Cold War 2.0, a phrase that he was the first to popularize, has become a reality put on steroids as a consequence of the expansionist efforts of Xi Jinping. He gives detailed historical perspectives, and makes comparisons with foresight, and explains why autocracy is making a comeback in parts of Europe. Nalapat sees this as part of the systemic conflict between Autocracy and Democracy represented in Cold War 2.0. This battle between the PRC and the US, for and against supremacy of the CCP governance system respectively, has opened up an opportunity for India to fulfil her potential as a security partner for the countries opposed to the attempt at hegemony by the PRC and thereby become the default manufacturing resource for the world, just as China was to the US in Cold War 1.0, when the USSR was the adversarial challenger. There is fascinating analysis about how adept Beijing has been in manipulating the CCP’s future targets to lower their guard, so they become an eventual pushover. Chapter 3 outlines the mistaken Atlanticist perception that Communist China could become “more like us” through growth, and the lessons Communist China has learned from Western behaviour. He describes how western administrations and bureaucracies, including NATO, have resisted changing their behaviour even though circumstances have changed.
The aftermath of the Cultural Revolution and the fall of the USSR are examined through the lens of hindsight and how the CCP has benefitted from both.
Madhav Nalapat
The CCP strategy for dominance covering the Himalayan massif, the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific; the Sino-Russian partnership and its faultline (Russian primacy over the Atlantic); and the Indo-Russian all-weather friendship are clearly and comprehensively articulated, with limitations regarding its future because of the new closeness between China and Russia. A snippet of interest that had never in the past been explained was a rupee-rouble arrangement in 1993 that inflated the value of the rouble to repay outstanding debts for Indian purchases of Soviet weaponry, a concession estimated to be worth over USD 10billion.
Soft power and hard power, tactics and traps between friends, neighbours and hostile alliances are all realistically reviewed, with the objective of securing India’s primacy in the region. Because of the Sino-Russian alliance and the associated Sino-Wahabi alliance (especially in India’s case, the China-Pakistan nexus) there is a big question mark over the future of India’s purchases of Russian defence equipment. This has created an ideal opportunity for American and European defence systems to manufacture in India, providing the US administration gets fully awakened to the existential threat from the PRC. In fact, Nalapat suggests that India can replace the PRC as the international manufacturing hub for everything from pharmaceuticals to silicon chips. India as an aspiring superpower needs a large degree of self-sufficiency in production through increased investment. Jobs created go a long way towards societal stability, although he points out that regulation and taxation need to be simplified.
The middle part of the book moves to the present and how future foreign policy should be addressed, now that India has the opportunities that the PRC had during the 1980’s. His advice centres around both a security alliance matrix as well as creating an enabling environment for all investors, except those from hostile countries. This comprises security, in the case of Cold War 2.0 potentially provided by the QUAD, with suggested Quad Plus members including Indonesia and Vietnam. The book stresses the value of good relationships with what Nalapat terms as India’s “near abroad” such as Iran, historically an important oil trade partner with India and an ally in counterterrorism.
The last segment of the book is dedicated to how India should approach Africa’s and South America’s potential, respecting each countries civilizational roots. Reaching out to indigenous people is a fundamental part of Nalapat’s recipe for connecting; he believes each country’s entire history should be accurately retrieved and taught through their education system. There are ideas about how India could help the people of Pakistan from being dominated by the military who run that country. And warnings about manufactured spin that demeans a democracy vs the reality of a government working hard in the interest of the nation; what gets stressed is to avoid diluting the crimes and misdemeanours of fringe elements both in India and in the US, and not restricting citizens freedoms by excessive controlling legislation. Nalapat has from the 1980s been the original counter-Nehruvian ideologue, a nationalist and pragmatic idealist who has unconditional faith in the resourcefulness, innovativeness of Indian people, and in the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The book, part of a 10-volume series brought out in the 75th year of India’s independence from the British Empire, reinforces his writings over the past 35 years that have put context around national politics and geopolitical events. The author has built up an uncanny record of accurately foretelling the most unpredictable events. This is a timely publication not only for the Lutyens Zone and students of India but for policymakers from the White House to Whitehall.
Antonia Filmer is former British Vogue Fashion Editor, Home Furnishing Design Director of Laura Ashley Ltd., producer of Garden Operas for 10 years to benefit a children’s charity. Antonia is an inveterate traveller and is currently the London correspondent for The Sunday Guardian of India.