CSM EDITORIAL
The latest spat between the Tories and Reform over the alleged automated membership counter on Reform’s website misses the key issue: party membership numbers do not directly correlate with election success.
In the last decade, Jeremy Corbyn famously spiked Labour’s party membership. The number of full members moved from 190,000 in May 2015 to 515,000 in July 2016 – an influx of 325,000 new members. Corbyn never reached Downing Street and was annihilated at the 2019 General Election. Labour membership numbers dropped to their lowest level in 10 years under Keir Starmer and he won a massive majority at the 2024 General Election.
What is more relevant to the Tories here (as ‘Where is Peak Corbyn?’ was in 2017/18) is where is peak Farage?
Farage is Marmite to the electorate. Only the recent failings of Labour and the weak tea of conservatism the Tories produced under Cameron, May, Johnson and Sunak are tempting British voters to consider Farage.
There is a point at which Farage and Reform will hit a ceiling, however much cash they put into their marketing machine.
For Zia Yusuf, Reform party chairman, to claim that “history has been made today” and that the Tories’ “centuries-long stranglehold on the centre-right of British politics” has “finally been broken” because Reform’s £25 a year memberships have eclipsed the Tories’ £39 a year memberships is, of course, nonsense.
Starmer continuing to show he knows nothing about business, as if turkeys will vote for Christmas
Reform’s polling strength reflects frustration with Labour’s incompetence and ideological rigidity, as well as disillusionment with the Tories’ past missteps—not a seismic shift in political allegiances.
The Conservative Party is not merely a private club. Its success since 1832 lies in its ability to anticipate and respond to the electorate’s desires—a political intuition, or spitzengefühl. Even now, in its diminished state, the party recognises that Western democracies, including the UK, have shifted rightward. The party is currently searching around for answers at a grassroots level (with locals, farmers, businesses) – not relying, as once it did, on the input of inbred aristocrats who dribble their tea from the corner of their mouths onto Carlton Club wingbacks.
Reform thinking that cash and membership numbers will somehow break through the Farage ceiling are mistaken. First, many Tories will never cast their vote for Farage. Second, even if Farage succeeds in getting a large donation over from the US, it will come with conditions attached that will hinder his ability to replace the Tories.
As a source in or around State Street clarified, the Trump administration’s view of Farage is to “give him a pedestal not a desk”. In other words, use Farage as a blunt instrument to force the Tories rightwards, expose Labour’s sinister treachery and to help thwack Von der Leyen into submission. While a donation from Elon Musk may be forthcoming, it won’t fundamentally change this dynamic.
As for the Tories? Badenoch has the potential to be the Tories’ Botham – softening up opponents by hitting them for six and taking their wickets while suffering quite a few ducks and no balls. The problem the Tories have is that the popular Mike Brearley (to replace Botham to make up for lack of Badenoch’s captaincy skills) has not yet come to the fore.
Thus, the future of the Conservatives lies with a new generation—one that detests Labour, venerates Thatcher, and sees no need for an alliance with Reform. When they emerge, those ex-Tories who wanted to punish the current crop for letting them down, will recognise that a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour, and will revert to the less brash blue fold.
Membership numbers mean very little. Party coffers get filled by a small number of millionaires anyway.
Dominic Wightman, a Tory, is the Editor of Country Squire Magazine and the author of Dear Townies, Arcadia and Truth among other books including ‘conservatism’ which published this month. Deputy Editor James Bembridge voted Reform at the 2024 General Election.